Oh boy, this one is dead, dead, dead.

DOMA is so going down. CSpan has started broadcasting the audio from today’s arguments at SCOTUS on the challenge to DOMA, that most elegant construct of an insane Congress. They did the deed 13  17  years ago (and got ole Bill Clinton to sign it in an election year when he was already winding his presidency down and didn’t have to do it).

Back in November, your humble blogger predicted (in comments) that the Court would overturn DOMA, and as I listen to today’s audio, it sure sounds like they will do just that and with a healthy majority. We won’t know till May or June.

I haven’t had time yet to listen to yesterday’s arguments on Prop 8, but even if I had, after listening to and reading the observations of  the commentaries I wouldn’t dare predict except for one thing of which I am certain: the Court will not actually uphold Prop 8. There are many ways they can dodge or they can issue what they call a ‘narrow ruling’. They can even decide not to decide. 

I don’t know if they can do this in the Prop 8 case, but a happy outcome would be if they can say that every State must recognize marriages that are legal in other States. That would pretty much do it. I wonder if that’s similar to using the ‘Commerce clause’ as they did in Obamacare?

But in both cases I absolutely trust the Court will not issue any rulings that would actually restrict or deny rights. That’s not the business they’re in.

 (And, like with the ACA opinion, Roberts will buck the politics of the issue and vote to strike down DOMA.)

11 responses to “Oh boy, this one is dead, dead, dead.

  1. I listen to part of it today … interesting … and yes, I not only see it going down, but also agree with you on Chief Justice Roberts.

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  2. Irrespective of the merits, I think the court will not make a broad ruling. Roberts values the court, and he took a certain risk in upholding Obama care. That said, I’ll guesse leave it to the states. In the end I think we’ll end up at the same place mostly. I personally think that a change like this should ideally be through the political process.

    Maybe the flaw in my argument is that I do think that there’s a floor below which opposition to Gay marriage will drop below only slowly (mostly as middle aged and older folks just plane… well DIE!) Evangelicals are not a majority, but they’re a large minority, and I don’t think they’ll be convinced anytime soon.

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  3. Actually I think you address my narrow ruling idea. Moe: You’re a genius!

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  4. The Supreme’s seem to be reading the tea leaves….

    But One should never get ahead of themselves……

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  5. Roberts really can’t be trusted to make a sound, Constitutional ruling. He proved that with his Obamacare “vote.” That being said, I think DOMA will be struck down even if Roberts once again worries more about his “legacy” than the law.

    Frankly, I don’t see how DOMA can stand review by the court, though not for the reasons that most pro-queer people cite as why it can’t.

    Prop 8, on the other hand, will likely be upheld – if Roberts can be kept in line by the other American judges in the SCOTUS and prevented from siding with the Liberals or if Sotomayer gets her head right, which is always a possibility in her case in matters not pertaining to racial activism.

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  6. DOMA is so going down.

    It is nice to see regressive legislation bite the dust.

    It is also unfortunate that the Court cannot rule on other important issues like why real wages have stagnated since the ’70s, yet profits have not.

    I imagine they’ll revisit other social issues to keep peoples’ focus away from the glaring inequality that it tearing the country apart.

    Perhaps I’m being a bit cynical, but its getting harder not to be these days. 🙂

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    • I agree with this 100%, actually. And a good place to start would be to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to something a little more reasonable, like $9.75, while limiting how far companies can jack up the prices, lest they try to shift the burden (as they always do).

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      • Well, if you want to jack up unemployment by orders of magnitude, that’s certainly the path to take.

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        • Agreed!

          But only because the power to hire and fire rests squarely in the hands of the few.

          If bringing minimum wage up a mere $2.50 would have such a drastic effect on our nation’s economy, perhaps maybe we should determine why that is and how to go about changing it.

          Wouldn’t you agree?

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          • No, you’re wrong. The power to hire and fire rest in the hands of quite a number of people – small business owners – and those are the companies that would be hit hardest by raising minimum wage. And that is if one ignores the disastrous second part of your desire, which was to cap prices so companies couldn’t absorb the higher labor costs. Add that in any everything goes to Hell in a few short quarters.

            As for minimum wage itself – it’s already bloated past the point of rationality. Those jobs just aren’t worth the wage even now, not in a global marketplace at least.

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  7. Hey Moe, just thought I would stop by and let you know that I am still around. I may start another WordPress site in the future, but very busy with going back to school, Luther, etc.

    Hoping all is well with you,

    Samuel

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