18 of 19 and 17 of 19

From Taegan Goddard this morning – history counts.

I’m thinking about that old political maxim about how hard it is to unseat politicians once elected. They’d have to be found with “a live boy or a dead girl.” We don’t hear it anymore because it hails from a time when congress was all male, but the sentiment still resonates.

5 responses to “18 of 19 and 17 of 19

  1. I’m sure that you like that thought but it might not be appropriate this time. The DNC was very late this time and Obama’s riding a bit of a post-convention high, though not as much of one as is usual. That’s affecting the numbers.

    Take away that bounce – as if it had happened earlier – and the probabilities based upon historical precedence don’t look near so rosy for you Obama lovers.

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    • The ‘bounce’ effect is well over. Right now, the numbers in swing states are remarkable – I never expected to see his lead opening up so quickly. But like ii said below, I think it’s Romney’s words and actions pumping Obama up. Because clearly Romney’s number are going down.

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      • Post-convention bumps normally last 1 – 3 weeks so look at the figures next week for a better idea. Also, try using Pollster.com as it is somewhat more accurate since it factors in all the individual polls.

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  2. At this point, I don’t see a likely road to vitory for Romney.

    That said, things could still change, but It will require something not apparent now.

    Maybe if a white house tour found Barack’s prayer rug facing Mecca or something, but not otherwise.

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  3. I think we’ve lost the ability to be shocked by “live boy or dead girl”; we’ve seen too much of it over theyears.

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