Today’s big news is that Romney lost three caucuses last night. Anyone remember who won them in ’08? Of course not. No delegates were even in play last night; in a few months it won’t matter a bit.
Our elections – as they often are – could be decided by events over which neither the President, nor any candidate has control (most of which even the United States can’t control); we can only mitigate them. So who the Republicans ultimately nominate and who wins the November election may depend on:
- the state of the ‘Arab spring’ by July
- the state of the European economy this summer, and thus
- the state of the US economy
- Afghanistan and, yes, Iraq where conflicts are still largely religious and more violence is inevitable
- the price of oil
Any or all of these things will factor in our elections (as will the conservative success in spinning them as Obama failures). In normal times, even with these problems, I think Romney would still be the likely candidate. (And I still think Obama would win the election.)
But what if times aren’t normal? What if one of those things explode? What if that happens before the Republican convention . . . if that happens, bombast could take the day. Fear could triumph.
Much as we allowed ourselves, in our fear, to be lied into Iraq discarding both the truth and history, could the GOP do the same and reject Romney?
If that did happen, frightened delegates could be seduced by a radical voice articulating their fears. We all know who that would mean.