I agree the anti-incumbent sentiment building up is real. That being said though, I am not sure Arlen Specter’s primary loss in Pennsylvania is that predictive of what’s to come. Spector is nearly 80. He’s switched parties twice. Sestak ran a brilliant campaign to come from behind in the last weeks – a campaign strategy, by the way, that I expect to see copied. Sestak was a very appealing candidate. He was NOT an anti-anything. He wa a young buck challenging the old stag while he was weak.
The Ron Paul victory in Kentucky was somewhat predictive, but the Democrats primary drew out twice as many voters. So Paul may by the new face of the Republican party, that’s doesn’t assure that his will be the new face of Washington.
Time. Will. Tell.
UPDATE: Steve Benen at Washington Monthly makes the point that the most important election yesterday was the actual one – not a primary – in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District for the late John Murtha’s old seat. And Murtha’s former chief of staff won it against the GOP candidate who boasted of his Tea Party cred.
He notes “This is the only district in the country that backed Kerry in 2004, but McCain in 2008, suggesting it was trending heavily in the GOP’s direction. If there’s going to be a backlash against Dems right now, this should be the place to find it. Indeed, it was the bulk of Burns’ platform — he specifically ran against Washington, Speaker Pelosi, and the Obama presidency, a pitch Republicans intend to duplicate in other competitive districts through the fall.”
UPDATE II: A post from Balloon Juice captures my point exactly.
Only irrational “throw the bums out” anger could explain why Democrats would reject an 80-year-old, yet newly minted, member of their party. Stuff like this could have nothing to do with it.
(via Stu Rothenberg)